Stock forecasting and reordering

Reorder points that know your lead times.

A build that counts stock as it moves, works out a reorder point for each line from its lead time and how fast it actually sells, and drafts the purchase order when a line crosses it. A person still approves and sends. Nothing is bought without you.

Get your free plan Three sizes

The standard size takes: Four weeks
You own: The forecast, the rules and the data, in your accounts
Runs monthly: Only if you choose to pay monthly

No figure appears on this page. Your free plan comes back with the price of every size, and with what the whole job costs together.

What it is

Ordering by feel produces both failures at the same time. Cash gets tied up in the lines that felt safe to overbuy, while the lines that actually pay the bills run out in the last week of the month. A reorder point is just arithmetic on two numbers you already have: how long the supplier takes, and how fast the line sells.

The value shows up in cash before it shows in service. When slow lines stop being reordered out of habit and fast lines stop running short, the same money covers more of what sells. The draft purchase order is what makes that stick, because a rule nobody acts on is not a rule.

This is for you if

You find out stock is short when a customer does
Reorder quantities are somebody's memory of last time
Money sits in stock that has not moved in a year
A supplier's six week lead time is remembered five weeks late

One of these is usually enough. If none of them is true, this is not the first thing I would build for you, and the plan will say so.

Why it comes where it does

Ordering by feel produces both problems at once: money sitting in stock that will not move, and a stockout on the line that pays the bills.

Inventory management and projects has to be in place before this is worth building. Your free plan brings that in for you when you pick this, so the order is right and nothing gets paid for twice.

Worth knowingBuilds on the inventory system, so stock has to be counted before it can be forecast.

Three sizes, by scope

The sizes differ by how much is in them, not by how well it is done. Start at the size that matches the business today; moving up later is normal.

The Essentials

Reorder points you can trust.

Stock counted as it moves, in and out
A reorder point per line from lead time and sales rate
Alerts when a line crosses its point
Written documentation

Two weeks

The usual choice

The Standard

Purchase orders drafted for you. Most businesses choose this.

Everything in the size before, plus:

Draft purchase orders per supplier, held for approval
Order quantities that respect minimums and pack sizes
Seasonality carried forward from last year
Training for whoever orders

Four weeks

The Works

Stock as a cash decision.

Everything in the size before, plus:

Supplier performance tracked: promised against actual delivery
Cash tied up in stock, reported by line and by category
Slow and dead stock flagged monthly with a suggested action
Multi-location reorder points and transfer suggestions

Six weeks

The figure for each of the three sizes is not published here, because it depends on what else you are building at the same time. Build your free plan and the figure for each size comes back with it, along with what the whole job costs together.

How it is built

01
I check the stock data is trustworthy first, because a forecast on bad counts is worse than none.
02
I record real lead times per supplier, including the ones everyone knows but nobody wrote down.
03
The build: movement tracked as stock moves, reorder points calculated per line.
04
Draft purchase orders per supplier, held for a person to approve and send.
05
A month running beside your current ordering, comparing what it would have bought.
06
Written documentation and training for whoever orders.

Before you decide

Three things people get wrong.

They sayForecasting needs years of clean data.

It needs a few months of movement and honest lead times. The early forecast is rough, it improves every month, and it is better than memory from week one.

They sayThe system will order things we do not want.

It drafts, a person approves. Nothing is sent to a supplier without someone pressing send, in every tier.

They sayOur demand is too seasonal for this.

Seasonality is a reason to build it, not a reason to skip it. Season is one of the inputs, and the build carries last year's shape forward rather than assuming a flat month.

Your options

The alternatives, side by side.

Doing it yourself and hiring it out are both real answers. Here is how the three compare on the things that actually decide it.

Slide the table sideways to read every column.

Option	What it costs	What you own	Time	Outcome
Keep doing it by hand	Cash tied up in slow stock, and lost sales on the fast lines	Nothing new	Now	Ordering by memory, stockouts by surprise
Hire a stock controller, or subscribe to forecasting software	A salary plus leave, or a monthly fee per line or per user	A person who can leave, or a tool you rent	Weeks to hire, or months to fit your data to the software	Better ordering, at a cost that grows with the catalogue
This build	One build, or a monthly fee	The forecast, the rules and the data, in your accounts	Four weeks	Reorder points per line, purchase orders drafted, you approve

In practice

Monday morning purchase orders

Every line gets a reorder point from its own lead time and its own sales rate. On a Monday morning there is a draft purchase order per supplier covering everything that has crossed the line, ready to review and send, and the fast movers stop running out in the last week of the month.

Straight answers

Questions I get asked about this.

01Does it order without asking?

No. It drafts the purchase order and holds it. A person approves and sends, every time, in every tier.

02How much history does it need?

A few months of movement gets a useful reorder point. Accuracy improves each month, and the first version still beats ordering from memory.

03What about a supplier whose lead time is unreliable?

That is what the safety buffer is for, and the works tier tracks each supplier's actual delivery against what they promised, so the buffer is set on evidence.

04Do we need the inventory build first?

Yes. Stock has to be counted as it moves before it can be forecast, so inventory comes first and this sits on top of it.

Also in stock and orders

What sits next to this.

Inventory management and projects

Know what you have and where the jobs are at.

Wholesale trade portal

Trade orders without the phone tag.

Order management

Every order, from every channel, in one queue.

See all of stock and orders

The next move

Stock forecasting and reordering, priced in context.

The free plan asks a few questions about the business, then comes back with this service at the size that fits, anything that has to come first, and the figure for each part and for the whole job. Nothing is charged and nothing is booked at the end of it.

Get your free plan stuart@sevenlens.co

Get your free plan